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As the 2020 campaign cycle begins in earnest, the findings from the most recent Battleground survey reveal an electorate with an ever-deepening sense of frustration toward the status quo in Washington— evident not just in voters’ dissatisfaction with the President(though Trump’s ratings remain spectacularly bad), but also in their persistent exasperation with the state of the American polity—the major institutions and the individuals charged with leading them. Even more important for Democrats is voters’ pronounced economic anxiety. The last of these, in particular, has been manifest for the better part of two decades, despite the political and media elites’ fawning to the contrary—a dynamic that only exacerbates the sense of alienation among voters and non-voters alike—and appears unlikely to improve without serious and bold economic initiatives from the Democrats. Indeed, “change” promises, once again, to be the by-word of this election, as voters continue to cast about for an alternative to a political class they believe either fails to hear them—or does hear them, and yet fails to act.
Democrats’ strong showing in the 2018 midterms was a solid step toward rehabilitation from the disastrous 2016 elections, though it would be a mistake to treat those results as a necessary predictor of success moving forward. In fact, despite the President’s historic levels of unpopularity, voters continue to profess favorable opinions of his stewardship over the economy and job creation (a qualified assessment, to be sure, given their expectations of yet another significant downturn); moreover, they tend to side with Republicans over Democrats on these issues, as well.Overall, this data continues to illustrate Democrats’ inherent weakness to respond on the economy, and if the Party does not rectify this soon, it will find itself in serious jeopardy for the 2020 election.
Indeed, Democrats still face the challenge of articulating a bold, compelling economic vision that rises above the safety of platitudes, or that seeks to convince voters that a reprise of the economy of the 1990s or the early 2010s is sufficient to address the scale of the economy’s persistent failings—a perilous gambit that cedes the dimension of change to the opposition and ignores voters’ fears and their aspirations for the future. Democrats have major advantages on healthcare and education which contributed largely to their success in 2018. The challenge facing the Party ahead is to translate those advantages into a bigger economic frame. As important, Democrats stand to profit immensely by capitalizing on the President’s and his Party’s glaring vulnerabilities regarding their ties to the same powerful special interests that dominate American politics and government and are at the root of voters’ desire to chart a decidedly new course. Pursuing these strategies will require more than just highlighting the President’s flaws; they will require some measure of risk from Democrats as they offer a bold new trajectory and true security– economically, domestically, and internationally –for the American people.
If we do the basic blocking and tackling of great field and GOTV work, and focus on executing an effective strategy for working-class voters, all the elements are in place for a big Democratic victory in 2024.
Lake Research Partners is proud to have worked with several progressive Chicago leaders who were elected to office both in the first round on February 28 th and in the runoff election on April 4 th . All of our clients faced stiff competition but spoke to the issues that mattered to the people of Chicago. We would like to congratulate the following candidates on their victories: Brandon Johnson was elected Mayor of Chicago. LRP began polling for Johnson’s mayoral bid in the summer when Johnson had low name ID and ballot support at just 2%. But we spotted very early on that Johnson had a path to the runoff if he could garner the support of a multi-racial movement of progressive voters, particularly young progressive voters. Thanks to a masterful organizing infrastructure and media strategy, Johnson made the runoff over the incumbent mayor (who was on the air attacking him). In the runoff election, Johnson was able to beat a well-heeled opponent, who attacked him early on crime and safety. Johnson beat this by emphasizing his plans to invest in communities, jobs, schools, and healthcare—paid for by raising taxes on wealthy corporations. Johnson nevertheless won, again, due to first-class field and mobilization that helped the campaign hit its vote goals among Black voters, Latine voters, and white women. LRP has known Brandon Johnson for years, and could not be prouder of his spectacular achievement and what it means for Chicago’s future. We also believe this race offers important lessons for progressive leaders running campaigns across the country in ’23 and ’24. Jeanette Taylor was re-elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 20 th Ward. Taylor garnered over 50% of the vote in the first round against two opponents, avoiding a runoff. Taylor won because she has an inspiring personal story and has prioritized the issues that matter to voters, like affordable housing. Jessie Fuentes was elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 26 th Ward. LRP polled for State Senator Omar Aquino in the 26 th Ward on behalf of Fuentes, who he endorsed. Fuentes has an inspiring personal story as well and will make an excellent addition to the Chicago Council. She beat two opponents in the first round. Fuentes is the first woman, first LGBTQ leader, and the youngest Alderperson from the 26th Ward. William Hall was elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 6 th Ward. Hall came in first place in the first round against ten opponents. Hall faced stiff competition in the runoff. He ran on a progressive platform and, though there are still votes left to be counted, appears to have won by a solid margin. Desmon Yancy appears to have been elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 5 th Ward. LRP polled for Yancy for his first-place finish in the first round against ten opponents.
New polling from Lake Research Partners for Groundwork Collaborative
LRP research on working-class voters, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, was featured in this NYT article. The report is part of a continuing effort to do on-the-ground research and data analysis to understand the thinking and motivation of working-class voters and to recommend strategies to begin rebuilding the Democratic Party’s and progressive movement’s historic connection to America’s working class. The full report can be read here .
Voters agree politics has grown less civil since COVID-19 and beginning of Biden presidency
As the mounting challenges the country faces continue to go unaddressed, the national unity and civility in America remain frayed with new and concerning controversies in schools, masks, and the state of the economy
The country agrees politicians should compromise to find solutions and get things done on a wide range of issues and challenges, where the voters themselves register strong support for action, across partisan lines.
We draw inspiration from those of you who have marched in the protests, spoken out passionately and eloquently on social media and to friends and loved ones, or engaged in the necessary work of self-reflection and ongoing education required by us all to identify how we directly or indirectly perpetuate systemic injustices. Please click here to go to our full statement.
The FiveThirtyEight 2019 Pollster Ratings , which grades the accuracy and methodology of public opinion polls, are out! Lake Research Partners received an A/B rating, once again confirming Lake Research’s status as the top political firm of our type. KUDOS to our team! Job well done.
Between the impending impeachment of President Trump and the fast-approaching 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, the political landscape has transformed and intensified in important ways since the last Battleground Poll in April of this year, putting Republican electoral prospects in peril up and down the ballot.