May 9, 2023

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Mike Lux + Celinda Lake

RE: Democrats Could Win a Trifecta in 2024


If we do the basic blocking and tackling of great field and GOTV work, and focus on executing an effective strategy for working-class voters, all the elements are in place for a big Democratic victory in 2024.


That statement will likely come as a surprise to some Democrats, as there seems to be a culture of worry in our party not borne out by the underlying political dynamics in play. We don’t intend to minimize the challenges. Every election cycle has some tough things to deal with, and obviously, the negative consequences have never been so high if we do lose. But as two strategists who were more confident than most that 2022 would be a decent election cycle for Democrats, we believe that if we focus on winning instead of worrying, we will win the 2024 election in solid fashion.


The Challenges That  We Can Overcome


Let’s start with the challenges we know exist, and focus on how to overcome them:


1. The approval rating. Yes, Joe Biden’s approval rating has been in the low 40s for a long time now. But let’s note the following things:


  • His approval rating was in the low 40s in November of 2022, and Democrats did far better than expected and is typical for a president’s party in the midterms.


  • Bill Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s approval ratings were very low early in the re-election cycle too, and they both won decisive re-election victories. Clinton’s approval rating fell as low as 42% in 1995, while Obama’s approval rating was 44% at this time in 2011.


  • Republicans ran hundreds of millions of dollars last year attacking Biden on inflation and crime and a host of other issues, trying to tie local Democratic candidates to him. It didn’t work particularly well as an electoral strategy, but when you are being attacked night and day, and no one is running ads on your behalf, your approval ratings tend to go down.


  • No national politician in America has had especially good approval ratings for a while now. Americans are in a pretty cynical mood about everyone, and every institution as well.


So how do we improve Biden’s approval ratings? By holding events all over the country telling people about the very popular policies that have been successfully put in place, and by pushing out a compelling message based on improving people’s lives.


2. The age thing. Yes, voters have some concerns about the president's age. However, when they see the president getting things done, when they see him traveling the country, when they see him engaging the debate in the way he did in the SOTU, those fears recede. At the end of the day, voters care more about results and the agenda than about anything else.


3. The Senate map. Yes, it is a challenging map. The Democratic Party has a brand problem in rural America and with working-class voters outside of big metro areas, the “Factory Town” voters that we have done a lot of research and writing about in recent years. This makes winning states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana that much tougher, although those states have never been easy. But Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has a +9 approval rating (44% approve/35 disapprove), and Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) currently has a 58% approval rating, and is leading in the 2024 polls, according to recent Morning Consult polling. Polls show Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) with a decisive lead over independent Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and a Republican challenger. All polls show these three key Democrats ahead. The Republicans have serious problems with Trump candidates and aggressive primaries shaping up. The Democrats who are up in most states for re-election have all beat the presidential numbers by 8 to 12 points.


While these challenges are real, they can be overcome, and the problems are overstated. Remember that this same tough Senate map produced a net of five Democratic pick-ups in the 2000 election, which Gore narrowly lost to Bush; six Democratic pick-ups in 2006, allowing Democrats to retake the Senate; and two more in 2012. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance at  Democrats holding the Senate.


There’s been a lot of hay made over all the seats Democrats have to defend in battleground states, but we had strong years in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania  last year, and strong Senate candidates running in all three states. In Arizona, we also had a strong year, winning all the big statewide races. While the Sinema dynamic complicates things, she is solidly unpopular among both Democrats and independents. Gallego is currently ahead in either a two-way or three-way race in every public poll.


In the three reddest states where there is a Democratic incumbent in the Senate, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all of the incumbents have a strong and well-liked brand and have proven their ability to win over and over again in challenging circumstances.


Finally, while all the Republican held Senate seats are red in nature, there are some interesting possibilities out there. Ted Cruz (TX), Rick Scott (FL), and Josh Hawley (MO) are all pretty unpopular candidates. Cruz is facing a particularly compelling challenger in Colin Allred, a congressman and former pro football player who brought in an impressive $2 million in fundraising in the first 36 hours after announcing his candidacy. The Cruz-Allred race will undoubtedly be expensive, and will force Republicans to expend money to defend home turf that they would prefer to spend elsewhere.


4. The House map. Yes, Republicans currently hold the House, but unless Democrats do something very wrong, we are poised to take it back. There are 18 seats held by Republicans that Biden won, and in a presidential election year with higher Democratic turnout, we have a very good chance at a lot of those seats. We only need five seats to take the lead; there are more than three times that many up for grabs in crossover districts. And there are several districts that Biden didn’t win, like the Boebert seat in Colorado, where we have strong candidates and a very good chance to win.


5. Voter suppression. This, too, is a serious problem. Republicans have made it clear that they want to curb the youth vote in particular. The good news is that in big, close races where the Democrats and allied progressive groups have the resources to turn people out, we have shown the ability to still get high Democratic voter turnout and win elections. We need to prioritize GOTV and protect the vote in a big way, but as long as the resources are there, we can make it happen.


6. Worries about the economy. We don’t know where the economy is going to be heading into election season 15 months from now. There are always things to worry about in the kind of period in which we are living. The economy is complicated and worrisome, with a hundred different factors pulling in different directions.


But the fact is that the economy, despite all the hurdles, remains in solid shape. The unemployment rate is at record lows, jobs continue to be created at a steady pace (building on a record number of jobs created in the first two years of a presidency), inflation is easing. And the reason that things are good despite all these countervailing pressures is that the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress chose to pass a series of bills that made a $4 trillion dollar investment in the American people, with the vast majority of the money targeted to low and middle-income working families.


Democrats have delivered on important kitchen table economics issues important to working families. That unprecedented investment is going to keep the economy moving forward. We need at every level to highlight these investments and relentlessly say that this is not good enough until the economy is thriving for everyone.


Even if there is a slowdown before the next election, Democrats can point to all they have done and all that they want to do to continue to make things better in the future; drawing a populist contrast with the terrible things the Republicans want to do in order to further enrich wealthy corporations and their billionaire owners. Just as a populist message about corporate price gouging helped stave off Republican attacks on inflation in 2022, a populist message will help us win the 2024 election despite the latest economic twists and turns.



Why the Fundamentals Favor the Democrats Again This Year


American presidential elections in this historical period tend to be competitive and hard fought. 2024 will be no different. We can take nothing for granted: we will need an all-out effort to turn out every Democratic vote and convince every swing voter in the battleground states and districts.


Having said that, despite the challenges listed above, the underlying dynamics in this race tend to favor the Democrats. Here’s why:


1. There are more Democratic voters and leaners than there are Republican voters and leaners. By every significant measure we know of, there are simply more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election but one since 1992. Democrats control the Senate despite the huge advantages toward small rural states. We are in a minority in the House by a historically narrow margin, and had control the last four years, in spite of the massive edge the Republicans have had in gerrymandering. Less frequent voters, especially young people, also strongly favor Democrats. And we have done better than Republicans three election cycles in a row; even when we lost in 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 million votes. Democrats are out-performing their usual margins, and are turning out in higher numbers than usual in most of the 2023 elections so far, resulting in big wins in elections like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.


2. The abortion issue is very powerful and Republicans are stuck on the wrong side of it. The Wisconsin Supreme Court race made it clear that the issue of whether women get to decide when to have their children is not going away, and it’s not lessening as a priority for women voters. The fight over abortion pills and draconian state measures is only going to focus more attention and energy around the issue. And for all the efforts of some Republicans to take modest steps to move to the middle rhetorically, their party is stuck on the wrong side of history and voters: their far right base is going to force them to continue embracing the anti-abortion cause. This will help with turnout and young women and unmarried women who vote very Democratically, and persuasion of swing suburban women for whom this is a decisive issue.


3. What Biden and the Democrats have accomplished with their policy successes over the last two years is going to be reinforced over and over again. Democrats will still have to keep getting their message out in a variety of ways about their accomplishments – they will not get the credit they deserve automatically – but their policy accomplishments are going to be seen by people all over the country every day for the next 17 months. Every new bridge that is built, every road that is repaired, every airport that is improved, every new silicon chip or solar factory that opens, every time people purchase lower priced insulin: every time is a chance for Democrats to remind people of what we are accomplishing for them.


4. People who vote tend to like freedom and voting. Okay, this shouldn’t be that shocking, but maybe it is to Republicans: people who vote tend to value voting and the rest of the democratic process. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the saving democracy issue helped Democrats in a big way in 2022, possibly second only to abortion rights. It should be noted that Democrats won seven out of seven secretary of state races in battleground states last year. The speech on democracy President Biden gave in Philadelphia right before Election Day was a big factor in turning the tide. And freedom -- reproductive freedom, the freedom to vote, the freedom to read whatever you want to read, the freedom to build a good life for you and your family -- is one of the core values of American voters.


5. Populist economics trumps culture wars. Among the key group of working-class “Factory Town” voters that Republicans and Democrats are fiercely competing for, the Democrats’ economic message blows the Republicans’ culture war message out of the water (by a margin of +10 points in our latest research). There are many winnable voters in these small to midsize former industrial counties that went to Trump because of his populist economic rhetoric – they couldn’t care less about the LGBT attacks the Republican Party is so focused on pushing today. Keep in mind as well that the working-class voters Republicans are targeting with culture war messages are actually pro-choice, pro-outlawing AR-15s, and anti-book burning. If Republicans continue to campaign mainly on culture war issues, Democrats can and should beat them with populist economics.


6. We are winning a lot more than we are losing in the most competitive battleground states. Across the eight key battleground states in next year’s presidential race, we won most of the important statewide races in 2022. The most red outlier was Georgia, where we won the crucial Senate race everyone was targeting, but lost all the other statewide races. We narrowly lost two Senate seats in North Carolina and Wisconsin. We lost two governor races in Nevada and in New Hampshire, which was never competitive with Sununu running.


Every other key statewide race in the battleground states we won, including some of the most hotly contested races in the country: Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Senate; Michigan and Wisconsin governor; Minnesota attorney general (where the successful prosecutor of George Floyd’s killers, Keith Ellison, was being savaged by police unions); and Arizona governor, Senate, attorney general, and Secretary of State, which were crucial to win because of the extreme, election denying candidates Republicans put forward.



Bringing Home a Decisive Victory in 2024


Nothing about the 2024 election will be easy. There will be challenges in abundance, some we already know about and some that will come up in the months ahead. But if we stay focused on two major tasks, we will win races up and down the ballot; we will successfully defend the Senate in spite of that tough map; we will retake the House with a solid majority; and we will win the presidency once again.


The first task is to turn out our voters in record fashion, just like we did in the 2018 and 2020 elections. Democratic voters tend to be harder to turn out than Republican voters. People of color, young people, and unmarried women have all historically been less likely to vote, and we need to make a very big investment to get their votes out. The Democratic Party and campaigns will make a big effort toward GOTV, but the entire progressive movement and progressive donor world needs to support those efforts as well.


The second task is to make a major investment in winning the hearts and minds of working-class voters. Based on the work we have done in the Factory Towns project, as well as other data we have seen, we are convinced that there is a strong, effective strategy for gaining ground with working-class voters that Democrats have been struggling to win in recent elections. A strategy based on economic populism, community building, and person-to-person organizing starting early in the election cycle will pay real dividends, and help us make significant progress with these voters, which will make victory in 2024 far more likely.


Democrats need to understand that we can win big in 2024. It will take a lot of hard work, significant financial investment, and the right strategy, but we go into this election with a lot of confidence that we have a strong chance at a Democratic trifecta.



By Celinda Lake • October 19, 2026
To: Democrats and progressive leaders From: Celinda Lake and Mike Lux Re: Strategy for 2026 endgame As we head into the final month of the 2026 election, the two of us wanted to make some final recommendations on endgame message and political strategy, both for persuadable voters and turnout targets. Read the full memo below or click here to read on Soul of the Party. The Opportunity Election This is an opportunity election. We have the opportunity to have a historically dominant election year, breaking into red states and districts in a way that we have not seen since the 2006-8 elections, and importantly, win elections in the states that were swing states for Clinton and Obama but have swung heavily Republican over the last 12 years: Iowa and Ohio. However, for all the exciting polls all of us are seeing, we are not there yet. In the closing weeks, the Republicans will be spending massively and attacking aggressively, especially on culture war issues in social media. Democrats have to overcome the negative feelings about our party by both base voters and swing voters. We have to get young voters and other base voters to turn out and vote, and we have to show working-class swing voters we really are on their side. The good news is that most base voters and swing voters respond strongly to the same set of economic issues. We believe the way to insure a big victory at the polls is a strong dose of economic populism- not just talking about affordability, but being specific who the villains are and how to solve the problem: by stopping the war in Iran which is driving up prices, by cracking down on price gouging and the corporate abuse of power, and by driving down health care and drug prices, forcing the utilities to lower their rates, and by raising wages so that people can afford what they need. Base and swing voters are both driven by economic pressures and anti-establishment anger. Neither base nor swing voters feel like Democrats have an economic plan that will help them cope with their increasingly economically stressed lives. Base voters are motivated to turn out against Trump, but without a strong sense that Democrats will actually fight to make their lives better, we will not get the truly extraordinary turnout that is still possible. Democrats need a narrative arc that links a rigged economy to a rigged politics. This is more than just an affordability agenda or cost narrative. It is populist, putting Democrats clearly on the side of real change against a corrupt establishment. It provides us a structural analysis of how we got here. Another critical factor for the end game message specifically relates to base voters, which is that we will need a powerful populist message to help us turn people out. The field and GOTV work historically being done by the 501c groups will be happening far less than usual because donors have not put money into this part of the ground game in the way they have done in the past. Even if more money comes in the final weeks to do this work, all the groundwork not done earlier in the year will hurt our turnout efforts. This means we need an especially sharp message to motivate voters in the final weeks. Mushy, generic messages devoid of hard hitting stories about why things are so out of whack and how to solve those problems are not going to produce the turnout we need. Voters that Democrats have considered part of their base in the past that moved away from us in 2024, especially young people, Latinos, and Black men, are moving back our way because of their anger at Trump. That is the good news. The threat is that the Republican social media infrastructure targeting these pockets of voters is still very strong, and Democrats need to not assume they are automatically with us — we need to keep inoculating them from attacks, and on working to make sure the ones supporting us get to the polls. Swing voters, as they tend to be, are complicated. They live in every demographic cohort, but most of them are working-class people because, well, most voters are working-class people, and most higher educated professionals made up their minds about Trump long ago. Women over 50, Catholics (both white ethnic and Latino), and residents of rural areas and small and medium-sized working-class towns are the biggest groups of swing voters in this election. Cultural touchstones matter to these voters, and culture war politics still have a bite. The culture war is the Republicans’ version of the populist narrative. It doesn’t have the power that it did in 2024, but it still helps them compete by energizing their base and gives pause to swing voters about Democrats. Prebuttal and inoculation strategies are really important, and not speaking down to folks is critical: we need to show these voters that we are not insensitive to their legitimate concerns. However, in this moment especially, campaigns should keep laser focused on the fact that working-class families’ lives and attitudes are dominated by economic pressures. Working-class swing voters are cynical, angry, and deeply anti-powers-that-be — not only in terms of being anti-incumbent, but in terms of their anger at the billionaires and wealthy corporations they think are abusing their power. Solutions vs General Rhetoric There are many in the political world who argue that in these times, vibes matter more to voters than issues. We want to push back on that idea. Because voters are so cynical, and because they are inundated with one ad after another, we believe they are rebelling against traditional generalized political rhetoric. Democrats need to connect specific acts of corruption to specific outcomes that hurt their own families, e.g. because the Republicans took money from Big Pharma, Medicare is still not negotiating enough on drug prices. It’s not enough to say you will fight for the people; you need to say what specifically you are going to fight for. It’s not enough to talk about affordability, you have to name what and who are driving up costs, and how you are going to deal with those problems, e.g. big food companies are price gouging, and you are going to fight to abolish price gouging and force more competition in the food industry. You can’t just talk about the problems — people already know what the problems are; you have to talk about the solutions. Another key point: don’t just talk about affordability in terms of prices. People know that rolling back prices is not easy and will not happen overnight: they want their wages to go up, too. Make bigger paychecks a central part of your economic plan: a living minimum wage, better jobs, and making it easier to join unions, which are at an all time high in popularity. Voters want you to fight against corporate profiteering and price gouging, but they also believe that higher pay is central to them having a better life. And be specific about who the villains are, too. Too many Democratic politicians shy away from naming the corporations abusing their power and making life more miserable for people, but the people being hammered by higher utility rates, higher gas prices, and jacked up grocery prices know who to blame, and when politicians are hesitant to name the those companies, they think those politicians may be bought off by them. Tell voters your economic plan, and who you are going to fight for and against. We think that Democrats as a party made a mistake earlier in this cycle in not creating and talking a lot about an economic plan for the next Congress if we win a majority. Americans are desperate for solutions for their economic problems. They know they don’t like what Trump and the Republicans have done, but they also don’t think Democrats have a plan to make things better. The good news is that many outstanding Democratic candidates are talking about their economic plans, and we believe that the strength of our candidates and campaigns can carry us to victory. Do not make the assumption, though, as you close this campaign that just because the working-class voters your campaign is talking to are angry at Trump and the Republicans for high prices and the war that they will automatically flock our way. Many of them are still angry at us, too. Your campaigns need to show them that you have a plan — a specific plan — for getting us out of the mess we are in, and that you will stand up to the special interests and the establishment to fight for that plan — and for them. That doesn’t mean getting down into the weeds or using inside-the-Beltway talk about policies, but you need to be clear about how you will work to improve the economic stress they are under. Don’t take anyone for granted in this election. This is an angry, cynical electorate, and they are being manipulated by social media disinformation. We believe that the potential for a Democratic landslide is building, but we also believe that the deal is not done. The difference between this being a good year — one where we pick up just enough House seats to win a narrow majority and add a couple of Senate seats, but don’t regain control, versus a Democratic landslide where we pick up at least 20 House seats, half a dozen or more Senate seats, and several governor seats and state legislative chambers — is in whether Democrats finish strong. Democrats need to show that they are fighting to improve working families’ lives. If they succeed in telling that story, this could be a year where our gains exceed 2006 and 2008, and where the gains go deeply into red turf.
By Celinda Lake • June 30, 2026
Just out: If Dems want to win in November, we have to turn women out, especially ​ the Skippers and Flippers. Who are they? Legendary pollster Celinda Lake lays it all out:
By Charlie Greene • January 10, 2026
In partnership with Two Feathers Consulting, our team conducted survey research for Advance Native Political Leadership, surveying 1,000 Native American, Native Hawaiian, and Alaska Native adults to learn more about their political identities and perspectives. Our richly detailed findings revealed insights on motivating Native voters, electing Native leaders, and building a U.S. democracy where Native Peoples are truly represented. Results have helped Native and non-Native organizations alike better understand and serve this diverse voting bloc. You can learn more by reading and downloading the full report: Indigenous Voices Rising: 2024 National Survey Report
December 6, 2024
The latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll shows that voters want the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress to compromise with Democrats to get things done for the American people, but voters currently do not expect the Trump Administration to succeed in uniting the country or prioritize getting things done over taking revenge on Trump’s political enemies.  The poll, conducted by Republican pollsters from Tarrance Group and Democrat pollsters from Lake Research Partners, also shows significantly lower levels of political division than the last survey conducted in March, however most of this movement is due to a double-digit decrease in perceived division from Republicans in the wake of Trump’s victory. Lake Summary Tarrance Summary Questionnaire and Toplines Graphics and Slides
October 23, 2024
Younger women are registering to vote at record rates – and tell pollsters that abortion rights are a crucial voting concern
August 26, 2024
New Poll Reveals Critical Role of Unmarried Women Under 55 in the 2024 Elections
May 9, 2024
We're excited to announce that our latest national poll of women of color voters was released today! Commissioned by Intersections of Our Lives and conducted by Lake Research Partners and HIT Strategies, this poll provides a thorough look at the connections across Black, Latina/x, and Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) women voters and their motivations and issue priorities in the 2024 election cycle. Intersections of Our Lives is a Reproductive Justice collaborative of National Asian Pacific American Women’s Forum (NAPAWF), In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda (In Our Own Voice), and National Latina Institute for Reproductive Justice (Latina Institute), three women-of-color led national Reproductive Justice organizations with both federal and statewide presence. Our poll found that Reproductive Justice issues – such as securing good-paying jobs, accessing affordable healthcare including abortion and birth control, improving maternal health outcomes, lowering the cost of housing, and addressing rising costs and prices – are top of mind for women of color voters who could decide elections. We invite you to learn more about the poll findings and to share insights with your networks. Below please find links to the Intersections of Our Lives website, a press release, and fact sheets with more information about the polling and details of the findings for Black women, Latina/x women, and AAPI women voters, respectively. Links: Fact sheets General fact sheet Asian American and Pacific Islander Women fact sheet Black Women fact sheet Latina/x Women fact sheet Press release Website
By Charlie Greene • April 12, 2023
Lake Research Partners is proud to have worked with several progressive Chicago leaders who were elected to office both in the first round on February 28 th and in the runoff election on April 4 th . All of our clients faced stiff competition but spoke to the issues that mattered to the people of Chicago. We would like to congratulate the following candidates on their victories:  Brandon Johnson was elected Mayor of Chicago. LRP began polling for Johnson’s mayoral bid in the summer when Johnson had low name ID and ballot support at just 2%. But we spotted very early on that Johnson had a path to the runoff if he could garner the support of a multi-racial movement of progressive voters, particularly young progressive voters. Thanks to a masterful organizing infrastructure and media strategy, Johnson made the runoff over the incumbent mayor (who was on the air attacking him). In the runoff election, Johnson was able to beat a well-heeled opponent, who attacked him early on crime and safety. Johnson beat this by emphasizing his plans to invest in communities, jobs, schools, and healthcare—paid for by raising taxes on wealthy corporations. Johnson nevertheless won, again, due to first-class field and mobilization that helped the campaign hit its vote goals among Black voters, Latine voters, and white women. LRP has known Brandon Johnson for years, and could not be prouder of his spectacular achievement and what it means for Chicago’s future. We also believe this race offers important lessons for progressive leaders running campaigns across the country in ’23 and ’24. Jeanette Taylor was re-elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 20 th Ward. Taylor garnered over 50% of the vote in the first round against two opponents, avoiding a runoff. Taylor won because she has an inspiring personal story and has prioritized the issues that matter to voters, like affordable housing. Jessie Fuentes was elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 26 th Ward. LRP polled for State Senator Omar Aquino in the 26 th Ward on behalf of Fuentes, who he endorsed. Fuentes has an inspiring personal story as well and will make an excellent addition to the Chicago Council. She beat two opponents in the first round. Fuentes is the first woman, first LGBTQ leader, and the youngest Alderperson from the 26th Ward. William Hall was elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 6 th Ward. Hall came in first place in the first round against ten opponents. Hall faced stiff competition in the runoff. He ran on a progressive platform and, though there are still votes left to be counted, appears to have won by a solid margin. Desmon Yancy appears to have been elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 5 th Ward. LRP polled for Yancy for his first-place finish in the first round against ten opponents.
By Charlie Greene • March 9, 2023
New polling from Lake Research Partners for Groundwork Collaborative 
February 22, 2023
LRP research on working-class voters, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, was featured in this NYT article. The report is part of a continuing effort to do on-the-ground research and data analysis to understand the thinking and motivation of working-class voters and to recommend strategies to begin rebuilding the Democratic Party’s and progressive movement’s historic connection to America’s working class. The full report can be read here .
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