LRP in the News

Lake Research Partners is an Analyst Institute 2025 Expy “Perspectives on Power” Award Winner!

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 02:57:19 GMT

In partnership with Two Feathers Consulting, our team conducted survey research for Advance Native Political Leadership, surveying 1,000 Native American, Native Hawaiian, and Alaska Native adults to learn more about their political identities and perspectives. Our richly detailed findings revealed insights on motivating Native voters, electing Native leaders, and building a U.S. democracy where Native Peoples are truly represented. Results have helped Native and non-Native organizations alike better understand and serve this diverse voting bloc.

You can learn more by reading and downloading the full report: Indigenous Voices Rising: 2024 National Survey Report

Georgetown Battleground Civility Poll (November 2024)

Fri, 06 Dec 2024 17:21:40 GMT

The latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll shows that voters want the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress to compromise with Democrats to get things done for the American people, but voters currently do not expect the Trump Administration to succeed in uniting the country or prioritize getting things done over taking revenge on Trump’s political enemies.

The poll, conducted by Republican pollsters from Tarrance Group and Democrat pollsters from Lake Research Partners, also shows significantly lower levels of political division than the last survey conducted in March, however most of this movement is due to a double-digit decrease in perceived division from Republicans in the wake of Trump’s victory.

Lake Summary

Tarrance Summary

Questionnaire and Toplines

Graphics and Slides

Gender is going to be a huge factor in this election. Here’s what the data shows

Wed, 23 Oct 2024 13:42:09 GMT

Younger women are registering to vote at record rates – and tell pollsters that abortion rights are a crucial voting concern

Celinda Lake and LRP V.P. Cate Gormley had an article published in The Guardian, examining the gender gap in the 2024 national election. Click here to read it.

New Poll Reveals Critical Role of Unmarried Women Under 55 in the 2024 Elections

Mon, 26 Aug 2024 17:22:32 GMT

New Poll Reveals Critical Role of Unmarried Women Under 55 in the 2024 Elections

A recent survey of unmarried women under 55 voters conducted by Lake Research Partners in partnership with PSG Consulting and Alper Strategies & Media, found that these women are Democratic in their attitudes, values and voting preferences. They feel disempowered, but they are hopeful and change oriented. Unmarried women under 55 make up a large portion of voters in battleground states and can be the margin of victory. They need to be a target for persuasion and mobilization in this election and with information and the right messaging that empowers them, speaks to their lives and the issues they care about, like the economy and abortion, we can be successful in mobilizing them.

Click here to read the press release

Click here to read the fact sheet

Click here to read the social media toolkit

Latest national poll of Women of Color voters

Thu, 09 May 2024 15:11:06 GMT

We're excited to announce that our latest national poll of women of color voters was released today! Commissioned by Intersections of Our Lives and conducted by Lake Research Partners and HIT Strategies, this poll provides a thorough look at the connections across Black, Latina/x, and Asian American Pacific Islander (AAPI) women voters and their motivations and issue priorities in the 2024 election cycle.

Intersections of Our Lives is a Reproductive Justice collaborative of National Asian Pacific American Women’s Forum (NAPAWF), In Our Own Voice: National Black Women’s Reproductive Justice Agenda (In Our Own Voice), and National Latina Institute for Reproductive Justice (Latina Institute), three women-of-color led national Reproductive Justice organizations with both federal and statewide presence.

Our poll found that Reproductive Justice issues – such as securing good-paying jobs, accessing affordable healthcare including abortion and birth control, improving maternal health outcomes, lowering the cost of housing, and addressing rising costs and prices – are top of mind for women of color voters who could decide elections.

We invite you to learn more about the poll findings and to share insights with your networks. Below please find links to the Intersections of Our Lives website, a press release, and fact sheets with more information about the polling and details of the findings for Black women, Latina/x women, and AAPI women voters, respectively.

Links:

Fact sheets

General fact sheet

Asian American and Pacific Islander Women fact sheet

Black Women fact sheet

Latina/x Women fact sheet

Press release

Website

MEMO: Democrats Could Win a Trifecta in 2024

Tue, 09 May 2023 18:39:53 GMT

May 9, 2023

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Mike Lux + Celinda Lake

RE: Democrats Could Win a Trifecta in 2024

If we do the basic blocking and tackling of great field and GOTV work, and focus on executing an effective strategy for working-class voters, all the elements are in place for a big Democratic victory in 2024.

That statement will likely come as a surprise to some Democrats, as there seems to be a culture of worry in our party not borne out by the underlying political dynamics in play. We don’t intend to minimize the challenges. Every election cycle has some tough things to deal with, and obviously, the negative consequences have never been so high if we do lose. But as two strategists who were more confident than most that 2022 would be a decent election cycle for Democrats, we believe that if we focus on winning instead of worrying, we will win the 2024 election in solid fashion.

The Challenges That We Can Overcome

Let’s start with the challenges we know exist, and focus on how to overcome them:

1. The approval rating. Yes, Joe Biden’s approval rating has been in the low 40s for a long time now. But let’s note the following things:

His approval rating was in the low 40s in November of 2022, and Democrats did far better than expected and is typical for a president’s party in the midterms.

Bill Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s approval ratings were very low early in the re-election cycle too, and they both won decisive re-election victories. Clinton’s approval rating fell as low as 42% in 1995, while Obama’s approval rating was 44% at this time in 2011.

Republicans ran hundreds of millions of dollars last year attacking Biden on inflation and crime and a host of other issues, trying to tie local Democratic candidates to him. It didn’t work particularly well as an electoral strategy, but when you are being attacked night and day, and no one is running ads on your behalf, your approval ratings tend to go down.

No national politician in America has had especially good approval ratings for a while now. Americans are in a pretty cynical mood about everyone, and every institution as well.

So how do we improve Biden’s approval ratings? By holding events all over the country telling people about the very popular policies that have been successfully put in place, and by pushing out a compelling message based on improving people’s lives.

2. The age thing. Yes, voters have some concerns about the president's age. However, when they see the president getting things done, when they see him traveling the country, when they see him engaging the debate in the way he did in the SOTU, those fears recede. At the end of the day, voters care more about results and the agenda than about anything else.

3. The Senate map. Yes, it is a challenging map. The Democratic Party has a brand problem in rural America and with working-class voters outside of big metro areas, the “Factory Town” voters that we have done a lot of research and writing about in recent years. This makes winning states like West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana that much tougher, although those states have never been easy. But Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has a +9 approval rating (44% approve/35 disapprove), and Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) currently has a 58% approval rating, and is leading in the 2024 polls, according to recent Morning Consult polling . Polls show Democratic Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) with a decisive lead over independent Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and a Republican challenger. All polls show these three key Democrats ahead. The Republicans have serious problems with Trump candidates and aggressive primaries shaping up. The Democrats who are up in most states for re-election have all beat the presidential numbers by 8 to 12 points.

While these challenges are real, they can be overcome, and the problems are overstated. Remember that this same tough Senate map produced a net of five Democratic pick-ups in the 2000 election, which Gore narrowly lost to Bush; six Democratic pick-ups in 2006, allowing Democrats to retake the Senate; and two more in 2012. If we have a good election year overall, we have a very good chance at Democrats holding the Senate.

There’s been a lot of hay made over all the seats Democrats have to defend in battleground states, but we had strong years in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania last year, and strong Senate candidates running in all three states. In Arizona, we also had a strong year, winning all the big statewide races. While the Sinema dynamic complicates things, she is solidly unpopular among both Democrats and independents. Gallego is currently ahead in either a two-way or three-way race in every public poll.

In the three reddest states where there is a Democratic incumbent in the Senate, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia, all of the incumbents have a strong and well-liked brand and have proven their ability to win over and over again in challenging circumstances.

Finally, while all the Republican held Senate seats are red in nature, there are some interesting possibilities out there. Ted Cruz (TX), Rick Scott (FL), and Josh Hawley (MO) are all pretty unpopular candidates. Cruz is facing a particularly compelling challenger in Colin Allred, a congressman and former pro football player who brought in an impressive $2 million in fundraising in the first 36 hours after announcing his candidacy. The Cruz-Allred race will undoubtedly be expensive, and will force Republicans to expend money to defend home turf that they would prefer to spend elsewhere.

4. The House map. Yes, Republicans currently hold the House, but unless Democrats do something very wrong, we are poised to take it back. There are 18 seats held by Republicans that Biden won, and in a presidential election year with higher Democratic turnout, we have a very good chance at a lot of those seats. We only need five seats to take the lead; there are more than three times that many up for grabs in crossover districts. And there are several districts that Biden didn’t win, like the Boebert seat in Colorado, where we have strong candidates and a very good chance to win.

5. Voter suppression. This, too, is a serious problem. Republicans have made it clear that they want to curb the youth vote in particular. The good news is that in big, close races where the Democrats and allied progressive groups have the resources to turn people out, we have shown the ability to still get high Democratic voter turnout and win elections. We need to prioritize GOTV and protect the vote in a big way, but as long as the resources are there, we can make it happen.

6. Worries about the economy. We don’t know where the economy is going to be heading into election season 15 months from now. There are always things to worry about in the kind of period in which we are living. The economy is complicated and worrisome, with a hundred different factors pulling in different directions.

But the fact is that the economy, despite all the hurdles, remains in solid shape. The unemployment rate is at record lows, jobs continue to be created at a steady pace (building on a record number of jobs created in the first two years of a presidency), inflation is easing. And the reason that things are good despite all these countervailing pressures is that the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress chose to pass a series of bills that made a $4 trillion dollar investment in the American people, with the vast majority of the money targeted to low and middle-income working families.

Democrats have delivered on important kitchen table economics issues important to working families. That unprecedented investment is going to keep the economy moving forward. We need at every level to highlight these investments and relentlessly say that this is not good enough until the economy is thriving for everyone.

Even if there is a slowdown before the next election, Democrats can point to all they have done and all that they want to do to continue to make things better in the future; drawing a populist contrast with the terrible things the Republicans want to do in order to further enrich wealthy corporations and their billionaire owners. Just as a populist message about corporate price gouging helped stave off Republican attacks on inflation in 2022, a populist message will help us win the 2024 election despite the latest economic twists and turns.

Why the Fundamentals Favor the Democrats Again This Year

American presidential elections in this historical period tend to be competitive and hard fought. 2024 will be no different. We can take nothing for granted: we will need an all-out effort to turn out every Democratic vote and convince every swing voter in the battleground states and districts.

Having said that, despite the challenges listed above, the underlying dynamics in this race tend to favor the Democrats. Here’s why:

1. There are more Democratic voters and leaners than there are Republican voters and leaners. By every significant measure we know of, there are simply more of us than there are of them. Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election but one since 1992. Democrats control the Senate despite the huge advantages toward small rural states. We are in a minority in the House by a historically narrow margin, and had control the last four years, in spite of the massive edge the Republicans have had in gerrymandering. Less frequent voters, especially young people, also strongly favor Democrats. And we have done better than Republicans three election cycles in a row; even when we lost in 2016, Clinton won the popular vote by over 2 million votes. Democrats are out-performing their usual margins, and are turning out in higher numbers than usual in most of the 2023 elections so far, resulting in big wins in elections like the Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

2. The abortion issue is very powerful and Republicans are stuck on the wrong side of it. The Wisconsin Supreme Court race made it clear that the issue of whether women get to decide when to have their children is not going away, and it’s not lessening as a priority for women voters. The fight over abortion pills and draconian state measures is only going to focus more attention and energy around the issue. And for all the efforts of some Republicans to take modest steps to move to the middle rhetorically, their party is stuck on the wrong side of history and voters: their far right base is going to force them to continue embracing the anti-abortion cause. This will help with turnout and young women and unmarried women who vote very Democratically, and persuasion of swing suburban women for whom this is a decisive issue.

3. What Biden and the Democrats have accomplished with their policy successes over the last two years is going to be reinforced over and over again. Democrats will still have to keep getting their message out in a variety of ways about their accomplishments – they will not get the credit they deserve automatically – but their policy accomplishments are going to be seen by people all over the country every day for the next 17 months. Every new bridge that is built, every road that is repaired, every airport that is improved, every new silicon chip or solar factory that opens, every time people purchase lower priced insulin: every time is a chance for Democrats to remind people of what we are accomplishing for them.

4. People who vote tend to like freedom and voting. Okay, this shouldn’t be that shocking, but maybe it is to Republicans: people who vote tend to value voting and the rest of the democratic process. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the saving democracy issue helped Democrats in a big way in 2022, possibly second only to abortion rights. It should be noted that Democrats won seven out of seven secretary of state races in battleground states last year. The speech on democracy President Biden gave in Philadelphia right before Election Day was a big factor in turning the tide. And freedom -- reproductive freedom, the freedom to vote, the freedom to read whatever you want to read, the freedom to build a good life for you and your family -- is one of the core values of American voters.

5. Populist economics trumps culture wars. Among the key group of working-class “Factory Town” voters that Republicans and Democrats are fiercely competing for, the Democrats’ economic message blows the Republicans’ culture war message out of the water (by a margin of +10 points in our latest research). There are many winnable voters in these small to midsize former industrial counties that went to Trump because of his populist economic rhetoric – they couldn’t care less about the LGBT attacks the Republican Party is so focused on pushing today. Keep in mind as well that the working-class voters Republicans are targeting with culture war messages are actually pro-choice, pro-outlawing AR-15s, and anti-book burning. If Republicans continue to campaign mainly on culture war issues, Democrats can and should beat them with populist economics.

6. We are winning a lot more than we are losing in the most competitive battleground states. Across the eight key battleground states in next year’s presidential race, we won most of the important statewide races in 2022. The most red outlier was Georgia, where we won the crucial Senate race everyone was targeting, but lost all the other statewide races. We narrowly lost two Senate seats in North Carolina and Wisconsin. We lost two governor races in Nevada and in New Hampshire, which was never competitive with Sununu running.

Every other key statewide race in the battleground states we won, including some of the most hotly contested races in the country: Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania Senate; Michigan and Wisconsin governor; Minnesota attorney general (where the successful prosecutor of George Floyd’s killers, Keith Ellison, was being savaged by police unions); and Arizona governor, Senate, attorney general, and Secretary of State, which were crucial to win because of the extreme, election denying candidates Republicans put forward.

Bringing Home a Decisive Victory in 2024

Nothing about the 2024 election will be easy. There will be challenges in abundance, some we already know about and some that will come up in the months ahead. But if we stay focused on two major tasks, we will win races up and down the ballot; we will successfully defend the Senate in spite of that tough map; we will retake the House with a solid majority; and we will win the presidency once again.

The first task is to turn out our voters in record fashion, just like we did in the 2018 and 2020 elections. Democratic voters tend to be harder to turn out than Republican voters. People of color, young people, and unmarried women have all historically been less likely to vote, and we need to make a very big investment to get their votes out. The Democratic Party and campaigns will make a big effort toward GOTV, but the entire progressive movement and progressive donor world needs to support those efforts as well.

The second task is to make a major investment in winning the hearts and minds of working-class voters. Based on the work we have done in the Factory Towns project, as well as other data we have seen, we are convinced that there is a strong, effective strategy for gaining ground with working-class voters that Democrats have been struggling to win in recent elections. A strategy based on economic populism, community building, and person-to-person organizing starting early in the election cycle will pay real dividends, and help us make significant progress with these voters, which will make victory in 2024 far more likely.

Democrats need to understand that we can win big in 2024. It will take a lot of hard work, significant financial investment, and the right strategy, but we go into this election with a lot of confidence that we have a strong chance at a Democratic trifecta.

Congratulations Mayor-Elect Johnson and Other LRP Chicago Clients

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Wed, 12 Apr 2023 18:39:19 GMT

Lake Research Partners is proud to have worked with several progressive Chicago leaders who were elected to office both in the first round on February 28 ^th and in the runoff election on April 4 ^th . All of our clients faced stiff competition but spoke to the issues that mattered to the people of Chicago. We would like to congratulate the following candidates on their victories:

Brandon Johnson was elected Mayor of Chicago. LRP began polling for Johnson’s mayoral bid in the summer when Johnson had low name ID and ballot support at just 2%. But we spotted very early on that Johnson had a path to the runoff if he could garner the support of a multi-racial movement of progressive voters, particularly young progressive voters. Thanks to a masterful organizing infrastructure and media strategy, Johnson made the runoff over the incumbent mayor (who was on the air attacking him). In the runoff election, Johnson was able to beat a well-heeled opponent, who attacked him early on crime and safety. Johnson beat this by emphasizing his plans to invest in communities, jobs, schools, and healthcare—paid for by raising taxes on wealthy corporations. Johnson nevertheless won, again, due to first-class field and mobilization that helped the campaign hit its vote goals among Black voters, Latine voters, and white women. LRP has known Brandon Johnson for years, and could not be prouder of his spectacular achievement and what it means for Chicago’s future. We also believe this race offers important lessons for progressive leaders running campaigns across the country in ’23 and ’24.
Jeanette Taylor was re-elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 20 ^th Ward. Taylor garnered over 50% of the vote in the first round against two opponents, avoiding a runoff. Taylor won because she has an inspiring personal story and has prioritized the issues that matter to voters, like affordable housing.
Jessie Fuentes was elected to be Alderwoman for Chicago’s 26 ^th Ward. LRP polled for State Senator Omar Aquino in the 26 ^th Ward on behalf of Fuentes, who he endorsed. Fuentes has an inspiring personal story as well and will make an excellent addition to the Chicago Council. She beat two opponents in the first round. Fuentes is the first woman, first LGBTQ leader, and the youngest Alderperson from the 26th Ward.
William Hall was elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 6 ^th Ward. Hall came in first place in the first round against ten opponents. Hall faced stiff competition in the runoff. He ran on a progressive platform and, though there are still votes left to be counted, appears to have won by a solid margin.
Desmon Yancy appears to have been elected to be Alderman for Chicago’s 5 ^th Ward. LRP polled for Yancy for his first-place finish in the first round against ten opponents.

LRP and Groundwork Collaborative Release Research on the Federal Reserve

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Thu, 09 Mar 2023 14:54:11 GMT

New polling from Lake Research Partners for Groundwork Collaborative

New polling from Lake Research Partners for Groundwork Collaborative highlights voters’ attitudes toward the economy, specifically voters’ increasing distrust of the Federal Reserve, opposition to continued rate hikes, and interest in the Federal Reserve prioritizing policies that help workers and families. Key findings include:

Voters believe the Federal Reserve is on the side of big business (38%), banks (38%), and Wall Street (30%). Less than 1 in 5 across partisan lines think the Federal Reserve is on the side of average Americans.
About 4 in 10 voters (42%) nationwide have little to no confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doing what is right for the U.S. economy, including 20% who have no confidence at all and 22% who have a little confidence in him.
A majority (56%) of voters across demographic subgroups want the Federal Reserve to stop increasing interest rates before it triggers a recession. More than three quarters of voters say we should be focusing on the legislative tools Congress can use to fight inflation.
More than three quarters believe our economic leaders must focus on full employment and building an economy that works for all rather than taking overly aggressive actions that push the economy into a recession.

If you’re interested in speaking with Groundwork Collaborative or the Lake Research Partners team about the poll, the Federal Reserve, or inflation policy, please contact press@groundworkcollaborative.org .

You can see more results from the poll here!

NYT : Democratic Report Explores Blue-Collar Struggles

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 17:55:51 GMT

LRP research on working-class voters, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, was featured in this NYT article. The report is part of a continuing effort to do on-the-ground research and data analysis to understand the thinking and motivation of working-class voters and to recommend strategies to begin rebuilding the Democratic Party’s and progressive movement’s historic connection to America’s working class. The full report can be read here .

The Battleground Poll, January 2022

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Fri, 04 Feb 2022 20:10:56 GMT

Voters agree politics has grown less civil since COVID-19 and beginning of Biden presidency

The Battleground Poll, October 2021

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Thu, 28 Oct 2021 23:36:38 GMT

As the mounting challenges the country faces continue to go unaddressed, the national unity and civility in America remain frayed with new and concerning controversies in schools, masks, and the state of the economy

The Battleground Poll, June 2021

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Wed, 16 Jun 2021 03:21:46 GMT

The country agrees politicians should compromise to find solutions and get things done on a wide range of issues and challenges, where the voters themselves register strong support for action, across partisan lines.

Black Lives Matter

Thu, 11 Jun 2020 03:52:22 GMT

Black Lives Matter

We draw inspiration from those of you who have marched in the protests, spoken out passionately and eloquently on social media and to friends and loved ones, or engaged in the necessary work of self-reflection and ongoing education required by us all to identify how we directly or indirectly perpetuate systemic injustices.
Please click here to go to our full statement.

FiveThirtyEight 2019 Pollster Ratings

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Tue, 05 Nov 2019 05:00:00 GMT

The FiveThirtyEight 2019 Pollster Ratings , which grades the accuracy and methodology of public opinion polls, are out! Lake Research Partners received an A/B rating, once again confirming Lake Research’s status as the top political firm of our type. KUDOS to our team! Job well done.

Battleground: Civility Poll

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 04:00:00 GMT

The public’s profound dissatisfaction with the state of American politics is longstanding and worsening, informed by a multitude of grievances, including perceptions of ineffectiveness, incivility, and corruption. At the same time that voters express a desire for political leaders to seek compromise and common ground, however, they also decry political leaders for compromising their values and ideals by failing to stand up “to the other side.”

The Battleground Poll

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 04:00:00 GMT

Between the impending impeachment of President Trump and the fast-approaching 2020 Democratic presidential primaries, the political landscape has transformed and intensified in important ways since the last Battleground Poll in April of this year, putting Republican electoral prospects in peril up and down the ballot.

Polling on Gun Violence Among African American and Latinx Adults

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Thu, 19 Sep 2019 04:00:00 GMT

A first-of-its-kind survey, focusing solely on the voices of African American and Latinx adults, presents solid evidence that gun-violence prevention advocates must do more to include the voices of people of color.

LRP Survey Shows Voters Wary of New Military Operations

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Tue, 25 Jun 2019 04:00:00 GMT

Likely 2020 voters across the first four states express no appetite for seeing the U.S. expand its military engagement in conflicts around the world and are particularly opposed to going to war in Iran. These voters also support the repeal of the 2001 Authorization of Use of Military Force (AUMF), favoring instead a fresh, bipartisan Congressional review and vote on any specific troop deployments.

The Latinx Challenge in the 2019 Virginia Legislative Elections

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Fri, 21 Jun 2019 04:00:00 GMT

Recently conducted research shows that Latinx voters in Virginia are significantly less motivated to vote in this year’s legislative elections compared to other progressive targets. In fact, it is not even close. Progressives have plenty of time to act now, contact these voters, and convince them that their priorities can be addressed at the state level.

Lake Research Names Jonathan Voss Partner

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Tue, 23 Apr 2019 04:00:00 GMT

Lake Research Partners is proud to announce that Jonathan Voss has been named partner.

The Battleground: Democratic Perspective

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Tue, 09 Apr 2019 04:00:00 GMT

As the 2020 campaign cycle begins in earnest, the findings from the most recent Battleground survey reveal an electorate with an ever-deepening sense of frustration toward the status quo in Washington— evident not just in voters’ dissatisfaction with the President(though Trump’s ratings remain spectacularly bad), but also in their persistent exasperation with the state of the American polity—the major institutions and the individuals charged with leading them. Even more important for Democrats is voters’ pronounced economic anxiety. The last of these, in particular, has been manifest for the better part of two decades, despite the political and media elites’ fawning to the contrary—a dynamic that only exacerbates the sense of alienation among voters and non-voters alike—and appears unlikely to improve without serious and bold economic initiatives from the Democrats. Indeed, “change” promises, once again, to be the by-word of this election, as voters continue to cast about for an alternative to a political class they believe either fails to hear them—or does hear them, and yet fails to act.

Democrats’ strong showing in the 2018 midterms was a solid step toward rehabilitation from the disastrous 2016 elections, though it would be a mistake to treat those results as a necessary predictor of success moving forward. In fact, despite the President’s historic levels of unpopularity, voters continue to profess favorable opinions of his stewardship over the economy and job creation (a qualified assessment, to be sure, given their expectations of yet another significant downturn); moreover, they tend to side with Republicans over Democrats on these issues, as well.Overall, this data continues to illustrate Democrats’ inherent weakness to respond on the economy, and if the Party does not rectify this soon, it will find itself in serious jeopardy for the 2020 election.

Indeed, Democrats still face the challenge of articulating a bold, compelling economic vision that rises above the safety of platitudes, or that seeks to convince voters that a reprise of the economy of the 1990s or the early 2010s is sufficient to address the scale of the economy’s persistent failings—a perilous gambit that cedes the dimension of change to the opposition and ignores voters’ fears and their aspirations for the future. Democrats have major advantages on healthcare and education which contributed largely to their success in 2018. The challenge facing the Party ahead is to translate those advantages into a bigger economic frame. As important, Democrats stand to profit immensely by capitalizing on the President’s and his Party’s glaring vulnerabilities regarding their ties to the same powerful special interests that dominate American politics and government and are at the root of voters’ desire to chart a decidedly new course. Pursuing these strategies will require more than just highlighting the President’s flaws; they will require some measure of risk from Democrats as they offer a bold new trajectory and true security– economically, domestically, and internationally –for the American people.

Pretrial Justice Institute Survey Results

Thu, 12 Jul 2018 04:00:00 GMT

What Voters Expect from Pretrial

More than three-quarters of Americans (78%) think that the system currently favors the wealthy. Nearly half of respondents (48%) indicated that community services would be fairer than money bail and demonstrated strong preferences for supports such as court date reminders, services for victims of domestic violence, and drug and alcohol counseling.

Most significantly, a majority of Americans (52%) believe that prosecutors should have to make the case to detain someone before trial—instead of the current practice, which defaults to detention whenever a person cannot afford money bail.

Joshua Ulibarri of Lake Research Partners Named 2018 Pollster of the Year

Fri, 13 Apr 2018 04:00:00 GMT

Becomes the First Latino to Win Award

LRP partner Joshua Ulibarri has been recognized as the 2018 Pollster of the Year by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC). The AAPC’s Campaign Excellence Awards are largely known as the political-consultant industry’s highest honors. Nominations are evaluated by a bi-partisan team of fellow consultants and the honoree is selected by the Board. The award is annually awarded to political consultants on a bi-partisan basis given their contributions to significant electoral wins, advancement of important causes, or handling of meaningful public affairs campaigns. It recognizes the work from the previous cycle—In this case, 2017.

Ulibarri’s selection is historic as he is the first Latino pollster to win the award.

Ulibarri’s polling, and LRP’s work in 2017 was historic by any standard. Ulibarri and his team were the only polling firm for the Virginia House Democratic Caucus and have been since 2015. Since 2015, the Democratic caucus has gained 17 seats. In 2017 alone, Democrats flipped 15 seats from red to blue and did not lose a single Democratic seat. The wins in 2017 included sending 12 women to the Assembly (14 since 2015), including the first two Latinas, the first two Asian Pacific Islanders, the first lesbian, and the first out-transgender woman ever elected to a state legislature in United States history. It was only by the (bad) luck of a drawing that prevented Democrats from pulling even and sharing control of the Assembly.

From beginning to end, Ulibarri and his team’s work in Virginia included polling in more than 20 districts, through more than 40 surveys, and reached more than 12,000 voters. In addition to being the sole pollster for the House Caucus, Ulibarri polls for four of the 19 Virginia Democratic State Senators.

In 2016, Ulibarri and his team at LRP elected a new Sheriff and District Attorney in Harris County, Texas and polled for the three-million-dollar independent expenditure campaign against Sheriff Joe Arpaio in Maricopa County, Arizona. Ulibarri’s issue work covers an impressive range of issues, including racial and LGBT equality, public education, poverty, health and science, responsible gun ownership, young voters, humane treatment of animals, and jury research. Known as a leading researcher among his generation of consultants, he is among the best methodologists and moderators in the field, and a sought-after Latino voice in progressive politics. Ulibarri has an extensive past and current client list that includes U.S. Senator Jon Tester and several members of Congress, including Sheila Jackson Lee, Gerry Connolly, Andre Carson, and Ruben Gallego.

Joshua Ulibarri discusses how Virginia victories can apply to 2018

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Wed, 28 Mar 2018 04:00:00 GMT

Partner Joshua Ulibarri was recently a guest on the podcast Achieve Great Things where he and host RJ Bee discussed Joshua’s thoughts on the 2017 Virginia House Delegate victories. He and RJ deliberated on how Democrats flipped 15 seats from Republican incumbents, and how 2018 progressive campaigns can follow in their footsteps.

Message Guidance: Countering Trump and the Republican Majority

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Thu, 19 Oct 2017 04:00:00 GMT

New research reveals powerful messaging to mobilize the progressive base and persuade swing voters against the right-wing economic agenda of Congressional Republicans and Trump. This memo summarizes the key findings from a national survey of 900+ likely voters, and provides a roadmap for progressives to communicate a sharp, engaging economic narrative in 2018.

Voter registration is the real resistance

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 04:00:00 GMT

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) make up nearly 59.2 percent of eligible voters. But these citizens don’t register to vote or turn out in proportion to their share of the population. We need to get these voters onto the rolls and to the polls in 2018.

New Poll Shows Michele Young within Single Digits of Rep. Steve Chabot in OH-01

info@lakeresearch.com (Charlie Greene) — Thu, 07 Sep 2017 04:00:00 GMT

A recent survey of likely 2018 voters in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District shows Democrat Michele Young strongly positioned against longtime incumbent Republican Steve Chabot. Congressman Chabot starts out well under fifty percent in a matchup against Young, only single digits ahead of the successful small businesswoman and mother of five.