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Battleground Week 3 Tracker
WASHINGTON -The George Washington University Battleground 2004 Tracking Poll, completed prior to the first presidential debate, shows President Bush opening a slight lead on Sen. Kerry in the race for the presidency. The aided presidential ballot stands at 51% for Bush and 44% for Kerry. This survey finds fully 83% of likely voters continue to have made a "definite" choice for president. President Bush continues to enjoy a slight advantage over these highly intense supporters - 45% of likely voters are "definitely" voting for Bush and 38% of likely voters are "definitely" voting for Kerry. On voter views about the presidential candidates, 56% of likely voters have a favorable view of President Bush and 42% have an unfavorable view of him. Regarding Sen. Kerry, 48% of likely voters have a favorable view of him and 48% of likely voters have an unfavorable view of him. On the handling of key issues, voters believe that Bush would do a better job safeguarding America from a terrorist threat (58%-33%), dealing with Iraq (58%-38%), and keeping America prosperous (49%-44%). Voters believe Kerry would do better at creating jobs (48%-43%). On personal qualities, voters believe that Bush better represents the qualities of strong leader (57%-35%) and shares your values (50%-41%). Voters believe Kerry better represents the quality of representing middle class values (48%-42%). On key issues, the top concerns of voters continue to be the war in Iraq/terrorism (39%) and the economy/health care (28%). The generic Congressional ballot has moved to a slight advantage for the Democrats (46%-42%). Voters continue to be concerned about the direction of the country - 50% say the country is on the wrong track and 41% say the country is headed in the right direction. "We now have a little over four weeks left in the 2004 presidential election and there was gradual improvement for George W. Bush throughout this week's tracking," Republican pollster Ed Goeas said. "It should be noted, however, that this week's tracking did not reflect Thursday night's debate. It will be interesting to watch over the next few days if the debate and post debate spin will have any effect on these dynamics." Looking to the November election, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said, "Bush continued to lead Kerry heading into the debate. Given Kerry's roundly praised performance, however, we would expect the numbers the draw closer over the coming days." This bipartisan GW-Battleground 2004 poll surveyed 1,000 registered, likely voters nationwide September 27-30, 2004 and yields a margin of error of + 3.1%. This nationally recognized series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry, in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle. The George Washington University is the sponsor of the "2004 Battleground Poll," a highly regarded, bi-partisan election survey conducted by top polling firms Lake Snell Perry and Associates and The Tarrance Group. GW's role in the Battleground Polls is guided by the University's Graduate School of Political Management. The University was also recently recognized as the "Hottest School for Political Junkies" in the 2005 Kaplan/Newsweek How to Get Into College Guide for the second time in three years. For more information about the poll, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Snell Perry & Associates at (202) 776-9066 or e-mail Daniel at dgotoff@LakeResearch.com. |
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