Independent voters are more likely to side with a Republican candidate on Election Day, the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll found. Since the last poll was taken one month ago, Republicans have gained more support from Independent voters with 44 percent indicating they plan to side with the GOP and 30 percent planning to side with the Democrats on Nov. 2. The Sept. 27 poll found that 38 percent of Independents indicated they would vote for a Republican and 32 percent said they would vote for a Democrat. Twenty-six percent of Independent voters remain undecided.
When asked about the upcoming midterm elections, 48 percent of Americans said they are worried about President Obama and the Congressional Democrats having two more years to enact their policies, while 43 percent are worried about Republicans taking control of Congress and returning to their policies under the Bush Administration. Additionally, 62 percent of those polled have less faith in government now than they did two years ago, while 32 percent have more faith.
Since the last poll, President Obama's job approval and disapproval ratings remain the same at 46 percent and 51 percent respectively. Forty-two percent strongly disapprove of the job the president is doing. His personal approval rating remains higher at 65 percent. If the 2012 presidential election were held today, 48 percent of those polled would vote for the Republican candidate, versus 42 percent who would vote for President Obama. Forty-nine percent of those polled have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party while 43 percent have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. The poll also found that 64 percent of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.
Similar to the last poll released on Sept. 27, this latest poll shows Republicans have a 5 point advantage over Democrats (47 percent to 42 percent) in the generic congressional match-up. The majority of those respondents indicated they would vote for a candidate based on their belief that he or she is the best choice. When asked which party has been more specific this year in proposing policies and solutions for our nation's problems, 42 percent said Democrats and 39 percent said Republicans. Additionally, the poll found that 39 percent of Americans believe Congressional Republicans have done the most negative campaigning this year, while 28 percent believe Congressional Democrats have.
Thirty-one percent of those asked said they would make their choice for their member of Congress because it would be a vote for Obama and the Congressional Democrats, while 23 percent would cast their vote as a vote against President Obama and the Congressional Democrats. Similarly, 25 percent would cast their vote as a vote for the GOP taking control of Congress, while 11 percent would cast a vote as a vote against Republicans taking control of Congress.
Americans favor Congressional Republicans over Congressional Democrats by 14 points to control the deficit. On the issues of turning the economy around, creating jobs, sharing your values and social security, Americans favor Congressional Republicans within the margin of error (+ 3.1 percent). When asked about the same issues, Americans more clearly favor Republicans over President Obama. They favor Congressional Republicans over President Obama in turning the economy around (48 percent to 42 percent), creating jobs (50 percent to 39 percent), controlling the deficit (50 percent to 34 percent), health care (49 percent to 42 percent) and social security (47 percent to 39 percent). Though, voters who still remain undecided about the upcoming Congressional elections give Democrats a 6 point advantage on turning the economy around, a 7 point advantage on creating jobs, a 15 point advantage on social security and Republicans a 63 point advantage on controlling the deficit.
"As we enter the final ten days of the 2010 election, the concerns of likely voters is clearly a problem for Obama and the Congressional Democrats moving forward as they cannot change their identity, they cannot escape blame for the disastrous economic policies of the past two years, and they cannot go back in time to curb the excessive and reckless spending of the past two years," said Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group. "The stage is set, and it is hard to see much, if anything, that can be done to change it over the next ten days."
"While Republicans have an advantage in overall enthusiasm and a lead on the generic ballot, voters are far from embracing their agenda," said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners. "In fact, some of the advantage Republicans have derives from their greater unanimity and enthusiasm on issues. Democrats, especially as individual candidates, can make gains among the critical swing voters by drawing clear distinctions on the economy and jobs and social security. Drawing a much clearer choice on these issues energizes the base and pulls swing voters, especially in the critical Midwest, and among the key swing voters -- independent women."
"The sexy story of the campaign is the emergence of the Tea Party," said Jim VandeHei, executive editor and co-founder of POLITICO. "But the most important story is the swing of independent voters away from President Obama and Democrats. This poll shows Independents - just like conservatives - have lost faith in government, oppose the health care law and appear ready to defeat a large number of Democrats."
"'Hope and change' has crashed into the economic realities," said Chris Arterton, professor of political management at GW. "Unless some drastic event shakes up the present dynamics, we will be headed into what the Japanese would call a 'twisted' Congress, with the House under Republican leadership and the Senate run by the Democrats. A recipe for either moderate compromises or, more likely, stalemate."
This POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide October 17-20, 2010, and yields a margin of error of + 3.1 percent. It is a nationally recognized, bipartisan series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. It distinguishes itself from other surveys by presenting separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle. The George Washington University became a sponsor of the Battleground Poll in 2004. POLITICO became a joint partner in Sept. 2010. The GW Global Media Institute, affiliated with both the Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) and the School of Media and Public Affairs (SMPA), serves as the university's administrative home for the partnership and GW's Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades.
For more information about the poll, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Research Partners at (646) 217-2085.
For more news about GW, visit the GW News Center www.gwnewscenter.org.
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